Six Kentucky Derby winners in the past nine years have captured the Preakness, four by 1½ lengths or more.
That’s a good omen for Barbaro, who crushed the opposition, winning the 132nd Kentucky Derby and ending a 50-year losing streak by 3-year-olds resting five weeks or longer after their final prep.
Needles was off six weeks before his triumph at Churchill Downs in 1956. Both had won the Florida Derby. However, Needles was edged out by Fabius in the Preakness.
Barbaro is likely to face 14 fewer horses than he defeated at Louisville when he won by 6½ lengths; this was the largest margin since ’46 when Triple Crown champ Assault scored by 8 lengths at the 1¼ miles.
Only two Derby also-rans will try him in the 131st Preakness: Brother Derek, who rallied from 10th after a mile to dead-heat for fourth with Jazil, and Sweetnorthernsaint, who pressed the pace in third until the stretch when he tired and finished seventh.
The Preakness has had fewer than 10 starters just once in the last 15 years when eight ran in ’00. Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, who scared away all by seven challengers, was upset at 1-5 by Red Bullet, who skipped America’s Race.
Bernardini, Hemingway’s Key, and Like Now will try to become the second horse to win the Preakness after skipping the Derby since ’83, when Deputed Testimony performed the feat.
Bernardini won this year’s Withers. Like Now ran second in the Lexington, while Hemingway’s Key placed eighth.
Two other horses being considered for the Preakness are more likely to run in stakes on the undercard.
Trainer Bob Baffert decided against entering any of his Derby horses. Baffert said Point Determined, ninth, and Bob and John, 17th, would be pointed toward the Belmont Stakes on June 10.
Bluegrass Cat, the Derby runner-up, and Steppenwolfer, third, are also expected to run in the Belmont.
The largest winning margin in the Preakness came in ’04 when Smarty Jones cruised to an 11½-length victory, besting Funny Cide’s record of 9¾ lengths in ’03.
Most of the previous races since Silver Charm triumphed by a head in ’97 were closer. In fact, only three horses had shared the one-time record of 8 lengths: Little Current, ’74; Bold, ’51; and Buddhist, 1889.
This year’s Preakness should be tighter. I like the undefeated Barbaro despite the shorter layoff.
Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek should bounce back and be tougher at 1 3/16 miles. Either could win.
Ironically, the largest margin of 10 lengths stood for 130 years after the inaugural Preakness in 1873. The aptly named Survivor set that record.
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“Oh boy, is this great?” That’s what Kent Dorfman said in “Animal House” many years ago. And that same question could be said right now about the eye-popping and heartwarming performance put up this past Saturday at Churchill Downs when Barbaro, the Florida Derby Champion, found his way to the winners circle in the 132nd Kentucky Derby.
His gritty and romping performance will be remembered for years to come. He simply toyed with the field at the top of the stretch and drew away under only mild encouragement from jockey Edgar Prado, who won his first Derby as well.
This three-year-old son of Dynaformer, whose offspring are royally bred for the turf, has shown how athletic and versatile he is by winning three races on turf and now three on dirt. He has won at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and a quarter and has never been seriously challenged with the exception of Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby.
The real question is: can he do it? Can Barbaro become America’s first Triple Crown Winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat some 28 years ago? Everyone, including jockey Edgar Prado, seems to think it could very well happen.
“All along I had great confidence. When I turned him loose, he took off running,” Prado said after Barbaro’s crushing of the Derby field. “Hopefully, we can get a Triple Crown.”
I recall a poll that was put up on the Daily Racing Form website that asked what could benefit horse racing the most. Some of the options were: get rid of drugs such as bute and lasix, install more poly-track surfaces, or have more incentives for breeding programs. But the fourth option was, “have a Triple Crown winner.” After the results were tallied, it was overwhelming how many fans, bettors, and handicappers agreed that having a Triple Crown winner is what this sport needs. It was some 60% who made the claim.
So judging from Barbaro’s performance this past Saturday in Louisville, can it really happen this year? Many of the experts on TVG, the Daily Racing Form, and other publications are under the impression it could really happen. Was Michael Matz, the trainer of Barbaro, playing with everyone while giving him 5 weeks from the Florida Derby to the Kentucky Derby? Was he giving him all that time because he knew that this next month is going to be a physically demanding whirlwind?
One thing is for certain, other horses and trainers don’t want to have to face him. Trainer Todd Pletcher, last year’s Eclipse Award-winner for best trainer, has admitted as much. His horse, Bluegrass Cat, ran a terrific race but was still a distant 2nd to Barbaro, and Pletcher will be skipping the Preakness because he is afraid to face the colt again.
“He showed today what we thought all along,” said Pletcher of Barbaro. “I knew we (Bluegrass Cat) were in a good position, but unfortunately for us, Barbaro kicked it in and ran his race.”
Trainer Bob Baffert, who had three Derby horses in Sinister Minister, Point Determined, and Bob and John, echoed the sentiments of the others.
“We weren’t going to beat Barbaro. He was awesome!”
May 20th marks the date of the Preakness Stakes and Barbaro should be a heavy favorite. It’s not sure yet who will come east to rival him, but as of now we know of a few. Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthersaint will all be headed for Baltimore. The question is… can anyone inch any closer to this monster? My guess is…absolutely not!
His gritty and romping performance will be remembered for years to come. He simply toyed with the field at the top of the stretch and drew away under only mild encouragement from jockey Edgar Prado, who won his first Derby as well.
This three-year-old son of Dynaformer, whose offspring are royally bred for the turf, has shown how athletic and versatile he is by winning three races on turf and now three on dirt. He has won at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and a quarter and has never been seriously challenged with the exception of Sharp Humor in the Florida Derby.
The real question is: can he do it? Can Barbaro become America’s first Triple Crown Winner since Affirmed accomplished the feat some 28 years ago? Everyone, including jockey Edgar Prado, seems to think it could very well happen.
“All along I had great confidence. When I turned him loose, he took off running,” Prado said after Barbaro’s crushing of the Derby field. “Hopefully, we can get a Triple Crown.”
I recall a poll that was put up on the Daily Racing Form website that asked what could benefit horse racing the most. Some of the options were: get rid of drugs such as bute and lasix, install more poly-track surfaces, or have more incentives for breeding programs. But the fourth option was, “have a Triple Crown winner.” After the results were tallied, it was overwhelming how many fans, bettors, and handicappers agreed that having a Triple Crown winner is what this sport needs. It was some 60% who made the claim.
So judging from Barbaro’s performance this past Saturday in Louisville, can it really happen this year? Many of the experts on TVG, the Daily Racing Form, and other publications are under the impression it could really happen. Was Michael Matz, the trainer of Barbaro, playing with everyone while giving him 5 weeks from the Florida Derby to the Kentucky Derby? Was he giving him all that time because he knew that this next month is going to be a physically demanding whirlwind?
One thing is for certain, other horses and trainers don’t want to have to face him. Trainer Todd Pletcher, last year’s Eclipse Award-winner for best trainer, has admitted as much. His horse, Bluegrass Cat, ran a terrific race but was still a distant 2nd to Barbaro, and Pletcher will be skipping the Preakness because he is afraid to face the colt again.
“He showed today what we thought all along,” said Pletcher of Barbaro. “I knew we (Bluegrass Cat) were in a good position, but unfortunately for us, Barbaro kicked it in and ran his race.”
Trainer Bob Baffert, who had three Derby horses in Sinister Minister, Point Determined, and Bob and John, echoed the sentiments of the others.
“We weren’t going to beat Barbaro. He was awesome!”
May 20th marks the date of the Preakness Stakes and Barbaro should be a heavy favorite. It’s not sure yet who will come east to rival him, but as of now we know of a few. Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthersaint will all be headed for Baltimore. The question is… can anyone inch any closer to this monster? My guess is…absolutely not!
This Saturday, I’ll be back at the same sports bar where I watched the Kentucky Derby.
This Saturday, I’ll be back at the same sports bar where I watched the Kentucky Derby. If you read my Derby column, I told you to throw out a couple of favorites (Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek), and keep Barbaro, despite history being against him. Unfortunately, I also told you that I like America’s favorite bet, the exacta. The exacta always seems do-able, and offers a chance to win some real dollars. And in a field of 20, what were the chances of hitting the Trifecta? Sad to say, that darn Bluegrass Cat spoiled my day. This was a horse that, by all reports, was “the bust of 2006.” That’s why it’s called gambling. But Triple Crown races are events, and, if you are a sports fan, you’ve got to bet the Preakness.
This time, it’s all about value. Sure, Barbaro looked great in the Kentucky Derby, but is he the sure thing that many analysts and bettors make him out to be? Well, maybe. Which is the reason you’ll never get value betting on him this Saturday. At best, he’ll go off at even money. Keep in mind, until Smarty Jones won in 2004, it had been 25 years since an odds-on-favorite won the Preakness Stakes. You’ll hear a lot about “The Bounce Factor,” which says that horses tend to regress after particularly strong races, especially when they are coming back on short rest. And Barbaro is a horse that has never run with fewer than five weeks of rest.
Did you know that 21of the last 22 Preakness Winners ran in the Kentucky Derby? So, what about Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint? Brother Derek, the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby, had major positioning problems in the Derby, and spent most of the race trying to break through a crowded 20-horse field. He lost a shoe and still finished fourth. He could be primed to run in the Preakness the race that many had expected him to run in the Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint, who ended up as the Derby favorite after a lot of late money was bet on him, also is one to watch. His Beyer speed figures were consistently better than those of Barbaro before the Derby. At 4-1, he may be a good bet.
Only three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness, the smallest number in the last quarter century. So, given that, the odds would be better that a horse would break that 21 out of 22 streak which I mentioned earlier. Which new horses are possible contenders? Most analysts think Bernardini is the best of the newcomers. The term “Speed Freak” has been used for Diabolical, and that always perks up my ears. Like Now likes to gun it from the start, so, maybe, he’ll take the lead and keep it. Nothing about the other new horses excites me.
So, I’ll be splitting up my $50 with a variety of bets. Right now, an exacta of Sweetnorthernsaint and Bernardini seems like good value, and not too outlandish. Scrappy T, the best fresh horse last year, came in second. Diabolical as a long shot to win might be worth a try. As long as Brother Derek doesn’t slip to worse than 3-1, put him in some exacta bets. And, if you just can’t bear not betting on Barbaro, put him in a couple of trifectas that include a long shot. Have a drink and enjoy yourself; there’s only one more to go after this one.
This Saturday, I’ll be back at the same sports bar where I watched the Kentucky Derby. If you read my Derby column, I told you to throw out a couple of favorites (Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek), and keep Barbaro, despite history being against him. Unfortunately, I also told you that I like America’s favorite bet, the exacta. The exacta always seems do-able, and offers a chance to win some real dollars. And in a field of 20, what were the chances of hitting the Trifecta? Sad to say, that darn Bluegrass Cat spoiled my day. This was a horse that, by all reports, was “the bust of 2006.” That’s why it’s called gambling. But Triple Crown races are events, and, if you are a sports fan, you’ve got to bet the Preakness.
This time, it’s all about value. Sure, Barbaro looked great in the Kentucky Derby, but is he the sure thing that many analysts and bettors make him out to be? Well, maybe. Which is the reason you’ll never get value betting on him this Saturday. At best, he’ll go off at even money. Keep in mind, until Smarty Jones won in 2004, it had been 25 years since an odds-on-favorite won the Preakness Stakes. You’ll hear a lot about “The Bounce Factor,” which says that horses tend to regress after particularly strong races, especially when they are coming back on short rest. And Barbaro is a horse that has never run with fewer than five weeks of rest.
Did you know that 21of the last 22 Preakness Winners ran in the Kentucky Derby? So, what about Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint? Brother Derek, the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby, had major positioning problems in the Derby, and spent most of the race trying to break through a crowded 20-horse field. He lost a shoe and still finished fourth. He could be primed to run in the Preakness the race that many had expected him to run in the Derby. Sweetnorthernsaint, who ended up as the Derby favorite after a lot of late money was bet on him, also is one to watch. His Beyer speed figures were consistently better than those of Barbaro before the Derby. At 4-1, he may be a good bet.
Only three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness, the smallest number in the last quarter century. So, given that, the odds would be better that a horse would break that 21 out of 22 streak which I mentioned earlier. Which new horses are possible contenders? Most analysts think Bernardini is the best of the newcomers. The term “Speed Freak” has been used for Diabolical, and that always perks up my ears. Like Now likes to gun it from the start, so, maybe, he’ll take the lead and keep it. Nothing about the other new horses excites me.
So, I’ll be splitting up my $50 with a variety of bets. Right now, an exacta of Sweetnorthernsaint and Bernardini seems like good value, and not too outlandish. Scrappy T, the best fresh horse last year, came in second. Diabolical as a long shot to win might be worth a try. As long as Brother Derek doesn’t slip to worse than 3-1, put him in some exacta bets. And, if you just can’t bear not betting on Barbaro, put him in a couple of trifectas that include a long shot. Have a drink and enjoy yourself; there’s only one more to go after this one.
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